List of Previous Titles

Sunday, September 18, 2011

An Actuarial Death Notice



An Actuarial Death Notice
Life should be lived to the fullest!


Every new-born baby is given an Actuarial Probability of Death which depends, among many other things, on where the baby was born and the access she/he will have to health care throughout life.

I was born in Bermuda in 1939, and my Actuarial Maximum Life Expectancy was given as 47 years. When we think about it, this is a hell of a thing, although I concede that it is absolutely necessary for such a study from many angles. But still, this is not some soothsayer or some person reading tea leaves, but rather some pretty serious folks issued this somewhat dire statement.

How accurate are they in their predictions? Far too many of my contemporaries died before the age of 50, including my first wife who died at age 42. What cannot be foretold is who among us will buck the trend and go on to live very long lives indeed. For those of us who do so, it perhaps may be because we took really good care of ourselves, but also it will be the luck of the draw to have avoided sudden and violent death.

I came upon this information when I was about eight or nine. One of the kids overheard their parents talking and he thought it a good idea to spread the word. I took it very personal and tailored my life to fit the prediction, especially as I came to realise that it was serious.

Provided we don’t know when we are likely to die, we are free to live each day as it comes. But I had my 47th birthday as a date that loomed very large the closer I came to it. As I saw friends dying my own mortality began to overwhelm me. I felt a need to do everything I needed to get done, in a hurry. I entered school when I was four years and eleven months, as I was born in October. So, I questioned whether I should stay in school as I was required to do until I was sixteen, or should I do as many of my friends did and get a job when I turned ten years and eleven months.

I decided to remain in school until I was sixteen, the legal leaving age, but then I had to get a job, get married, start a family all at once if I wanted to ever meet any of my grandchildren. The clock ticked on relentlessly. I was keenly aware that I could not waste any time by spending it in jail, so I was careful to keep myself out of trouble.

As it turned out, my wife did get to meet one of our three grandchildren, so all that concern was not for nothing.

I don’t recall being constantly occupied by a sense of urgency. I met the woman who would become my wife and I truly adored her, but it is true that we did not waste any time. We produced two of the loveliest daughters we could have asked for, but at the time that we married something else had begun to take place as a quiet form of revolution in the community, and that flew in the face of the predictions for a short life.

People began to send their children overseas for further education. Early marriage years were sacrificed for career learning, as though those people were going to live forever. These were the years following the end of the Second World War. Bermuda was experiencing a rising level of expectation and it was felt that a more substantial educational base was needed to cope. Both the government and private companies started to mention the “P” word. There seemed to be some sort of an epiphany sweeping the country in that we all felt that we could very possibly live longer than age 47, to the extent that we would need proper pension planning.

People continued to die off at fairly young ages but more and more were living well beyond age 50. The new exit age was about 60, so I reset my 47 to 60, then to 70, and now there have been such advancements in care, and I am no longer living in my former environment, but am now in the heartland of amazing medical knowledge and capability that there is a real likelihood that I will live to celebrate my 100th birthday. Our son could possibly choose whether he wants to live to be 130.

There are now more people aged 65 and over than there are children aged under 5 years. By 1960 men were expected to only have one year in retirement, but in 2011 that has risen to more than twelve years.(I have been retired for twelve years.) The actuarial prediction of Maximum Life expectancy for a male child born in Bermuda today is to age 77.49, and females to age 84. That ranks Bermuda number 30 on the table below.

How quickly and completely things change. What will the future bring? What do the Actuarial fortune-tellers have to say now in 2011?

The country of Tokelau, at number 228, is last with an age of minus 9. Tokelau is 10 square kilometres of islands that are New Zealand territory, with a declining population of about 1400 people. (Hence, presumably the minus rating.) However, in reality they have a life expectancy of 69 years.
Nigeria is today where Bermuda was when I was born with an age of 46.76. That places Nigeria at number 225
The United States, at number 46 has an age of 75.92.
The U.K. comes in at number 26 with an age of 77.95.
Spain, where I live now is number 22 with an age of 78.16
Number one is Monaco with an age of 85.77. (It seems Monaco wins the gamble.)
These are ages for males, but women live longer.

Copyright © 2011 Eugene Carmichael

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Even in Death



Even in Death life can be funny.

Something recently happened that made me remember the following story, and on thinking about it I have decided that I should commit it to written form.

Many years ago a certain elderly gentleman died in my native country. He was a well known womaniser. He was about seventy years old at the time of his death, but he stood tall and elegant. I attended his viewing and it was immediately obvious that there were far more women there than men. As my buddy and I approached the coffin there were two mature women in front of us. They paused at the coffin and immediately became a little emotional.

The woman next to me said, “ He looks good!” I thought, “good, but he’s dead!” Then she started speaking directly to him and this is exactly what she said: “Oh! X., you wonderful, sexy man. I loved you with all my heart. You gave me such good times and such pleasure. You’re a rascal but a beautiful man. Oh! That wonderful tongue of yours, you made me climax so many times in one night that I was dizzy. I miss you my darling and I miss that great …..”

Her friend noticed that I was standing there with my mouth hanging wide open so she disturbed her friend, just when things were getting interesting, saying come along dear.

This guy was not my friend because he was my senior, but his two sons were friends of mine, and they followed in his footsteps. I simply worshipped him for his lifestyle. The last time I saw him alive he walked into a high-class restaurant with three beautiful young women on each arm. That was a sight that stopped every diner with fork in mid air. All this happened about 20 years ago, and the fact that I remember it so clearly is testament to the fact that as strange as it may seem, the incorrigible playboy does command the respect of the community, as well as envy of the men.

We speak of such players as though they are bad persons but women seem to be only to willing to see what all the fuss is about for themselves, and men admire the lifestyle of such bad boys.

As for the great thing she was speaking of when she was interrrupted, I'm not sure of what she was speaking, but I did know him to have a great sense of humour. Could that have been it?
Life is funny! Death is probably even more so.

Copyright © 2011 Eugene Carmichael

Sunday, September 4, 2011

The Quiet Revolution



The Quiet Revolution - Major change is in the Air.

There is a revolution that is under way, and it is happening under the radar. Seemingly, it is obvious to everyone, while at the same time to no one. It is a change in the way that the world does its business that is no less important than a sea change, yet no-one is talking about it. What is it? It is the attitude that young people have towards marriage and/or the size of their families.
Simply put, young men are passing the age 40 mark without having been married even once, and young women in their thirties seem to be quite content with their single status. As always, celebrities have led the way in this change. They have realised that marriage is mostly incompatible with their careers. The process was: fall in love with another star, get married, have children, get divorced, live separately with the children spending time at one parents and then the other.

They simply decided to cut out the middle part and live separately, have their children and their careers and housekeepers. Now, ordinary people are following that same path, as much a part of the economic crisis as pure choice.

In my thinking the contrast is with my days as a young person. Having been born in Bermuda in 1939, the actuarial tables declared that my maximum life expectancy would be to age 47. Given that short span I had to finish my primary education, and at age 11 I had to decide whether I would get a job, as many of my class mates did, or stay in school until age 16 doing secondary education.

Those four or five years might have made all the difference as to whether you would get to meet any of your grandchildren. The legal age of consent was 16, so you had to wait until the girl was that age before you could make her pregnant, but once she attained that magic age it was full speed ahead. I got married at age 17.

Many people had large families, and they hoped for as many boys as possible. The reason for that was so they could take care of you in your old age.

What old age?


You expected to die before your 47th birthday. The way the prediction turned out for far too many of my contemporaries was all too accurate. My wife died at the tender age of 42, having only known one of the three of our grandchildren.

Here in Spain, and in Bermuda, and apparently in many other countries around the world young people are giving marriage and a family a pass. At first we saw women putting off childbearing till the last year possible, in favour of growing a career. Now the careers have gone along with the jobs and people are simply not getting married because they cannot afford to do so.

If you are a person who is trapped in a nightmare marriage you will not agree with me, but the fact is that the framework of marriage is both good and necessary. It provides the couple, whether heterosexual or same sex, with a plan for life that incorporates stability. A single person does not have that same stability and the probability of straying into dangerous waters is ever present.

Of course, when things go wrong in a marriage they can go very, very wrong indeed!


Finally, here in Catholic Spain, families are satisfying themselves with the modern family size of 2.2 children, so it is clear that the faithful are practising something more than the rhythm method of birth control.

The stage is set for a very peculiar future where there will be a large segment of the population that will live beyond 100 years, and a shrinking population of locally grown young people. Obviously the country will have to import a growing labour force over the coming forty years and that will give the populations of poorer nations a chance at a more normal livelihood.

So, all change to remain the same? Stay tuned!

Copyright © 2011 Eugene Carmichael